Good evening everyone!
Last week (or was it the week before?) I published the first post in a series that talks about how I came to be interested in trading and my journey thus far. Don’t worry – that series is still on and the next post will be published this week. I just wanted to give you all a heads up on what is going on in my world and what I am currently working on.
Back Testing – The Joy and the Agony
I started back testing a trend continuation strategy on the daily time frame. I am not going to go into too much detail on the strategy as I don’t want people copying my strategy blindly and lose money on it. The gist of the strategy is to wait for the markets to trend, look for a pull back in the trend, and enter when the pull back loses momentum. The stop loss is five points beyond the extreme of the entry signal and the target is a retest of the trend extension.
I back tested five years of data on the GBPAUD pair as is customary for me. I got a total of six trades. After talking with the traders in the Tier One Trading platform, I got the suggestion to back test as much data as I possibly could. I opened a new chart in NinjaTrader and punched in 1/1/1950 as my start date and got data all the way back to 2001 – before I even graduated high school! If my back test results are to be believed, I would have killed it had I started trading back then 🙂
So far I am about halfway through the data and I am really glad I wasn’t trading the global recession time period – those few years really killed my strategy. Expectancy is still positive though so I feel good about continuing to back test the other pairs. I anticipate to be spending most of the summer on this step. My goal is to start forward testing by October of this year, and then start live trading the following September.
In other areas of my life I am working on creating a personal finance class to be taught at my church. I am also going to be building a training platform similar to Tier One Trading to support the class with ongoing video training and I just registered the domain name tonight for it.
I didn’t do any conferences for my IT career this last year. I organized one, but I didn’t speak at any. I think I might try to pursue a speaking gig for my database administration job this year but I also want to take that time and focus in on my trading too. Conflicting desires makes decision making much more difficult.
Finally, I have been doing a lot of thinking of what sort of business I want to start once I finish learning how to trade and be consistently profitable. The Internet has enough trading educators – both good and scammy. I don’t know if another trading education business would be worth the time and money. I thought about using my YouTube channel to live stream my trading when I am ready for it to get customers for a money management business.
I have also thought about starting a mastermind group that would meet 1-2 times a month via Discord or some other voice chatting platform. I envision this group as being a group where ideas can be shared, members can hold each other accountable, and each month a different member can give an educational talk on a topic of interest. This group would be limited to 12-15 people and would be a place to get inspiration, be held accountable, ask questions, get answers and be encouraged to chase your dreams.